It’s a bull market as the Dow tops 19,000 and everything that once was dead is now back in vogue. For the first time in years the financial stocks are standouts with the general idea that they will mint money on a greater interest spread once the Fed raises rates in December. With the common belief that a pro-growth president, house and senate everything from industrials to stodgy cyclical names have caught new life. Healthcare is under pressure as Obamacare comes into question and the best way to reduce health care costs is through increased competition. Consumer wins, health care companies loose.
The play book right now is really quite simple and it’s nice to see the market moving to a drum beat that is not just because of a socialist movement of free money but rather employment and growth.
Of course the little booger that will rear its ugly head as a result is inflation. In addition, folks who’ve been hiding out in bond funds will open their statements this month and face a rude awakening.
At this very moment the market is fun again. People are smiling, stocks are rising and the general mood as we roll into Turkey day is jubilee. Let us take a moment to bottle this up and remember what it feels like since a normal uptrend comes with its normal declines as well. Along the road will be bumps and the inflation game will take a bite out of many of sectors that are benefiting from price advances today.
In our shop we’re positioning to make sure we take advantage of groups that will not only benefit from the above mentioned economic themes, financial stocks and cyclical plays but we’re also keeping an eye on the inflation plays such as commodities and emerging markets. No longer will a high tide rise all boats but rather sector selection will be critical.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and let’s enjoy the festivities while they’re happening but not become too complacent should the music stop abruptly.